4/26/2021 Crowley/Otero COVID-19 Update #1: What Do The Rates Mean? Requirements/Recommendations
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Description: 4/26/2021 Crowley/Otero COVID-19 Update #1: Status Update What Do The Rates Mean? Requirements/Recommendations
THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING AND FLUID SITUATION. INFORMATION AND ACTION ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. BE PREPARED TO BE FLEXIBLE AND PATIENT.
The situations, numbers, website links, data, and etc. described below were current as of Tuesday 4/27/2021 at 8:17 a.m.
PLEASE DISTRIBUTE THIS WIDELY
4/26/2021 Crowley/Otero COVID-19 Update #1: Status Update; What Do The Rates Mean?; Requirements/Recommendations
Please take the time to read and understand this entire message.
Internet links: Before I send out each update, I check the links to make sure they are active. However, links do change from time to time, so the links I sent out today may not be the same tomorrow. You may have to search around a bit.
- Current Crowley/Otero COVID-19 Status:
- One Week Cumulative Incidence Rate (per 100,000) Ranges
§ Green Level: 0-35
§ Blue Level: 36-100
§ Yellow Level: 101-300
§ Orange Level: 301-500
- Crowley & Otero County One Week Cumulative Incidence Rates: Thanks to our collective efforts, our rates have recently dropped! Crowley, in Blue Level, has a current rate of 66.3 and Otero, likewise in Blue Level, has a current rate of 87.5. Both of these are down from yesterday. A BIG thanks to all of you that are doing your best to keep our rates down!
- COVID-19 Status Dashboard: COVID-19 dial dashboard | Colorado COVID-19 Updates
- Keeping Our Rates Down: How can we do this? The Governor’s Office shared these great suggestions on 4/13/2021:
“Along with getting the vaccine as soon as one becomes available, it’s crucial that Coloradans continue to take good sense safety measures including:
a. Wearing masks
b. Social distancing
c. Staying home when sick
d. Getting tested if you think you have been exposed to someone with COVID
e. Gathering outside in small groups instead of opting for indoors
- What Do The Rates Mean?: During this pandemic, we have seen a lot of numbers, particularly rates, and so let’s talk about those for a bit.
ü One week cumulative incidence rate: Because population sizes in our state vary widely (like comparing Crowley County’s size to Denver County’s size), rates are often used instead of straight case counts to better compare the level of disease across different populations. How is this done mathematically? It is done by dividing the total (cumulative) number of COVID-19 cases in a county over 7 days by the population of that county, and then multiplying that number by 100,000. Regardless of the true population of any given county, an estimated comparison can be made across populations by using a baseline of 100,000 people. So, in essence, what is being said is “if a smaller county had a population of 100,000 people, the total number of cases during the last 7 days could be estimated to be this number.
o Example: On Tuesday, 4/27/2021, at 7:45 a.m., the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) reported that Otero County had 16 total (or cumulative) cases in the last 7 days (for the time period 4/19/2021-4/25/2021). To calculate rates, CDPHE uses a population of 18,282 for Otero County. So, the calculation would be as follows: [(16/18,282)*100,000] = 87.52. For that week, Otero had a total, actual number of 16 cases (identified), but if Otero’s population was 100,000 it would be estimated at 87.52 cases.
o Comparing actual case numbers between counties with widely differing populations is like the old saying, “comparing apples to oranges”, or more like comparing apples to elephants. If we make the population the same size (i.e. 100,000) and adjust the count mathematically, then it is more like “comparing apples to apples.” However, keep in mind that this is still an estimate. So, expanding on the previous apple analogy, it’s probably not like comparing a Red Delicious apple to another Red Delicious apple, but more like comparing a Gala apple to a Fuji apple.
o You can do the same thing for a two week rate by using the cumulative (total) number of cases over 14 days and applying the same calculation as above.
o Rate thresholds are used to determine the COVID-19 color level of a county.
§ IMPORTANT NOTE: Since prisoners are residents of what are called congregate care facilities, the COVID-19 positive prisoner numbers do not factor into the rate that determines a color level. The idea behind this is that the prisoners will not leave the facility, so they cannot directly spread the disease to members of the community. Prison staff, on the other hand, do leave the facility and, if they are found to be COVID-19 positive, they are counted in the numbers that determine the rate that determines the level.
o Go to this website COVID-19 dial dashboard | Colorado COVID-19 Updates and click on “One-Week Cumulative Incidence” or “Two Week Cumulative Incidence” at the top and then move your cursor over the map to see the county rates.
ü Average positivity rate (one week or 2 weeks)
o This is the average rate of positive cases over the past 1 or 2 weeks.
o How is it calculated: Let’s use 2 weeks for this example. Within the last 2 weeks, this is the number of positive cases divided by the total number of tests that were done in the same time period.
o Go to this website COVID-19 dial dashboard | Colorado COVID-19 Updates and click on “One-Week Average Positivity” or “Two-Week Average Positivity” at the top and then move your cursor over the map to see the county rates.
- Crowley/Otero COVID-19 Requirements & Recommendations: Effective 4/16/2021 and until further notice, the following are the COVID-19 requirements & recommendations for Crowley and Otero Counties:
- REQUIREMENTS:
§ Masks continue to be required in the following settings/places (statewide requirement):
· Schools (including for extracurricular activities);
· Child care centers;
· Indoor children’s camps;
· Public-facing state government facilities;
· Emergency medical and other healthcare settings (including hospitals, ambulance service centers, urgent care centers, non-ambulatory surgical structures, clinics, doctors’ offices, and non-urgent care medical structures);
· Personal services (i.e. hair salons, nail salons, esthetician services, body art professionals, etc.);
· Limited health care settings as defined by Public Health Order (PHO) 20-36;
· Congregate care facilities (nursing facilities, assisted living residences, intermediate care facilities, and group homes); &
· Prisons and jails.
· PHO 20-38 rate-specific requirement: “For counties with a one week disease incidence rate in excess of 35 per 100,000, face coverings are also required pursuant to Executive Order D 2020 138, as amended and extended, in a Public Indoor Space, as defined in Executive Order D 2020 138, as amended and extended, where 10 or more unvaccinated individuals or individuals of unknown vaccination status are present.”
o This currently applies to both Crowley and Otero Counties.
o For questions regarding this state requirement, please contact Su Korbitz (719-241-4372, ehdir@oterogov.org) or Tony Harviston (719-383-3087, eha@oterogov.org)
· Executive Orders & Public Health Orders (PHO) can be found here: Public health & executive orders | Colorado COVID-19 Updates
§ Under current state requirement, 6 foot social distancing is required between parties in mass indoor gatherings that exceed 100 people (for unvaccinated people or when vaccination status is unknown).
- RECOMMENDATIONS: Additionally, I am making the following recommendations for Crowley and Otero Counties:
§ I would strongly urge all those that have not been vaccinated to wear a mask when in any public places, including employees/staff of businesses.
§ If you have been vaccinated but you have not had 14 full days elapse since being vaccinated with Johnson and Johnson vaccine, or 14 full days have not elapsed since your booster shot (second shot) of Moderna or Pfizer vaccine, please wear a mask when in any public places, including employees/staff of businesses. This 14 day period allows your body the necessary time to develop immunity.
Richard Ritter, Executive Director
Otero County Health Department
13 West 3rd Street, Room 111
La Junta, Colorado 81050
719-383-3045 (Office)
719-383-3060 (Fax)
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